Thursday, November 29, 2007

Coffeehouse Investor

Recently, I was check for mutual fund options, stumped up on an investment strategy called ''Coffeehouse Investor''. Here is it's portfolio:

Vanguard 500 VFINX 10%
V. Value Index VIVAX 10%
V. Small Cap Index NAESX 10%
V. Small Cap Value
VISVX 10%
V. REIT VGTSX 10%
V. int.Bond Index VBIIX 20%
V. total Bond Index VBMFX 30%

Apparently, by investing in Index funds, this portfolio has outperformed 95% of the Wall Street big name mutual funds. Here is the list of its returns




1992
9.57%

1993
15.64%

1994
-0.58%

1995
22.89%

1996
14.53%

1997
17.95%

1998
6.88%

1999
8.30%

2000
7.25%

2001
1.88%

2002
-5.55%

2003
23.56%

2004
14.18%
2005
5.97%
2006
15.002%
ANNUALIZED


16 YEAR RETURN

11%

Monday, November 26, 2007

什么是真正的英国绅士


我大学的时候迷阿加莎,看了她几十本原文的,译文的推理小说。后来曾经读她的自传<克里斯蒂>。其中有一段故事让我记忆犹新,唏嘘不已。

阿加莎一个好朋友的哥哥, 炮兵少校瑞杰.露西,在香港工作, 回英国休假时爱上了阿加莎,于是跟她说,‘我爱你, 但你应该有机会去物色更好的丈夫, 两年之后如果你还没有找到更好的丈夫,请你嫁给我’。
阿加莎当时就说,我也喜欢你, 不需要等两年, 我这就可以嫁给你。
但是这个英国绅士说, 你应该得到机会和时间去选择, 楞是要先等她两年。。。。。。
结果就在这两年里, 阿加莎遇到了克里斯蒂。。。

哎,难道这才是真正的英国绅士??!!!

备注:
阿加莎创作了66部长篇推理小说,成功塑造了著名的波洛探长和马普尔小姐等人物形象。
作为一名高产作家,阿加莎坚持创作直到暮年,一生发表过的作品并不局限于侦探小说。她还发表了21部中短篇小说集,15部剧本,诗集,以及其他儿童读物。
从不自认是专业作家的 阿加莎始终认为自己只是个家庭妇女——虽然她依然继续着她喜爱的写作生涯。阿加莎获得了美国 侦探作家杰出成就奖;荣获不列颠帝国勋章CBE;成为侦察俱乐部会长,并连任终身;获得不列颠帝国女爵士勋章DBE,成为阿加莎女爵士。。。
1975年,85岁高龄的阿加莎发表了波洛探长的谢幕作品《帷幕》,包括《纽约时报》在内的许多报刊争相刊登了波洛的讣告。1976年,《神秘的别墅》出版,这是马普尔小姐的谢幕。
Source: http://www.cnajs.com/

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Dalai Lama = New Pope

Dalai Lama announced that his successor maybe appointed or elected rather than following the tradition, following recent orders that China must approve Tibet's spiritual leaders.

Monday, November 19, 2007

祝姥爷生日快乐

小诗一首:

龙耀八载岂等闲
曾经沧海化甘甜
如今共贺逍遥寿
闲逸再笑二百年

姥爷今年80,属龙

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Sex Ratio

I was reading about China's Sex Ratio of different age groups on the CIA World Fact Book:

at birth: 1.11 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.134 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 1.057 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.914 male(s)/female
total population: 1.06 male(s)/female (2007 est.)


In next 5-10 year, when the 10-15 years are looking for girlfriends and boyfriends, every 11 boy will have 1 impossible to find a girl in the same age group. Scary statistics.

Imagine the consequences, in the long run, either girls are becoming more and more popular in birth choice, or a lot of foreign women are needed. I presume most of these foreign women will come from South East Asia, more than 10,000,000. China is going to become an immigrant country.

PS. Of course, there is the option of turning people into gays.....李宇春, importing metro-sexual Korean and Japanese Soap Operas, uhhhhh, now it starts to make sense.......

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Michael Moore, Sicko and Hillary


Jiejie and I watched Michael Moore's Sicko last night. When I first told her it was a documentary, Jiejie had a "why did you rent that" kinda of expression on her face. It was about 5 minutes in the film, we were totally engrossed!!

From my understanding, Moore exposed two major problems in the U.S. health care system, first, many poor cannot afford health insurance, and many sick are denied of insurance, and any disease would become a death sentence for them, because no hospitals are willing to take care of the costs. Second, many insured citizens are exploited by the health care system. Insurance companies established task force to find reasons to deny large payments and HMOs refuse care to critical patients of outside network, drug premium skyrocketed, middle class cannot even afford to pay the deductibles.

He proposed that Universal Health Care would solve the problem, then he took the audiences to Canada, UK, France, even Cuba to show how well things are working out in those countries under universal health care. In the end, one question seems to come out loudly, if health care a right, or a privilege. Like personal freedom and protection, should health care be nationalized?

Although very entertaining, and gave a few wow's, giggles even tears in the story telling, Michael Moore barely touched the issue on how would the government pay for this Utopian like universal health care. And he seems to gloss over all the problems of universal health care, no wonder bunch of conservative pundits are calling him propagandist rather than fact seeker. He did touch on how the current system is protected, because the insurance companies are sending millions of dollars to lobby the government. Even once upon a time trailblazer in health care reform, Hillary Clinton, are now endorsed by the health care providers.

Out of curiosity I took a look into Hillary's health care plan. She has a 16 page health care plan on her presidential campaign website.

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/feature/healthcareplan/

Here is basically her proposal: instead of establish a large nationalized health care network, by increase taxes by a lot, she wants to give a LARGE TAX CUT, working family can pay the health premium by receiving a tax credit. In addition, poor people can choose from a menu of private providers from a government program. However, I could not find out how would the poor pay the deductible if the government is paying the insurance cost at all. She also mentioned to lower cost by removing hidden taxes, but this didn't go beyond rhetorics.

Here is my question for Hillary: First, how can the government pay for the uninsured and give out a large tax cut without increase taxes, especially when the government is so deep in debt and need to pay for the WAR? Second, at best this plan can eliminate discrimination because poor and sick people can get insured. But private insurance companies can still refuse to pay based on some flimsy reasons of denial. Third, how is this plan stopping costs from going up? It would end up that even the insured cannot afford to pay the deductibles...

No wonder even Michael Moore started criticizing the Democrat presidential front-runner, Democrats are turning into Republicans, and Republicans are something totally new, and worse... I kinda see how Michael Moore is so angry now.

PS. When you get sick, GO TO CANADA!!!

Fire Evacuation

Around 11:00 pm last night, the fire alarm sounded, and we were evacuated from our apartment.

Imagine this picture, in the freezing air of 30 degree F, 300 people standing outside a building, putting their arms across their chests and shaking...

The firefighters showed up really fast, it turned out that some idiot turned on the fire hydrant on the 16th floor...

Getting back home was even harder, the elevator was packed, we climbed 16 floors of stairs.

Friday, November 9, 2007

一休狂僧


今天休息的时候读了读历史上关于一休的记载,才明白一休并不是动画里那个少年老成的小和尚,而是一个酒肉穿肠过得疯/神和尚。他的悟性,写诗(中文)才华,和他愤世厌俗的态度,以及他的爱情,都让人感慨万分。

http://baike.baidu.com/view/4730.htm

一休和尚法名一休宗纯[Ikkyū Sōjun](公元1394-1481),是日本室町时代的一个禅僧。他的父亲是后小松天皇,母亲是天皇的一个妃嫔。一休出生前的六十年间,日本经历了南北朝的分裂局面,1392年才由足利义满这个幕府将军逼使南朝议和,结束了这场六十年的混战。一休的母亲原是南朝望族藤原家人,虽然后小松天皇对她宠爱有加,却引起了皇后的嫉恨,当发现她怀了身孕,就以她是藤原后人,同情南朝,对朝廷心怀不满为由,把她逐出皇宫。一休是在她离宫后出生的,故此他从未过过公子王孙的生活。

一休五岁就被母亲送进京都安国寺,当高僧象外集鉴的侍童,最初被命名为周健。他对研经很有兴趣,十一岁就参与听讲佛经,十二岁开始学习写作汉诗。四年后,象外集鉴去世,一休失去老师,无比痛苦,二十三岁的他感到绝望,到琵琶湖静戒了一周,最后决心投湖自杀。他的母亲探知此事,派人去把他救活。

1418年一休二十四岁,大师为他命名为一休宗纯。一休这名字的意思,他的一首偈诗作如是解释:“欲从色界返空界,姑且短暂作一休,暴雨倾盘由它下,狂风 卷地任它吹。”他认为物质世界和精神世界两者都是重要的,一个人得不断来往于这两个世界之间,但其中得有一段短暂的休息,以便在纯粹的自由中得以重生,风 风雨雨以及任何外界势力都与他无关。 两年后,1420年,一休终于悟道。在一个夏夜,雨云低垂,他在琵琶湖的一艘小舟上冥想,突然听见一声鸦啼,不觉惊叫起来,顿时大彻大悟,感到所有烦恼不安尽行消失。当他把这体验告诉大师,大师说:“你已修成阿罗汉,但仍未成正果。”一休答道:“若是如此,我乐得成阿罗汉,并不在乎修成正果了。”大师点点头道:“你真的是个已修成了正果的人啦!”

一休的“狂态”正是表达了他对那些僧侣虚伪的愤懑,他给自己起了个外号叫“狂云子”,他写的汉诗集就命名为《狂云集》。一首诗给一个同门师兄:

住庵十日意忙忙,脚下红丝线甚长;
他日君来如问我,鱼行酒肆又淫坊。

一休的行为完全同僧规背道而驰,他纵情诗酒,饮酒吃鱼,留连妓馆。在《狂云集》中他极其坦白地公开宣扬自己投身欲海的欢乐。如《题淫坊》:

美人云雨爱河深,楼子老禅楼上吟;
我有抱持睫吻兴,意无火聚舍身心。

早在1437年,一休四十三岁,正值大德寺为开山大灯国师举办百年大忌,一休就带了一个女子去参拜国师之墓。他还写了一首《大灯忌宿忌以前对美人》以表态:

开山宿忌听讽经,经咒逆耳众僧声,
云雨风流事终后,梦闺私语笑慈明。

“梦闺”是一休的另一个自号。 一休到了七十六岁,爱上了一个名叫森的盲歌女,森也不年轻,当时已经四十岁了,他们两人的交情维持了十年之久。一休写了很多香艳的情诗给森:

木凋落叶更回春,长绿生花旧约新,
森也深恩若忘却,无量亿劫畜生身。

梦迷上苑美人森,枕上梅花花信心,
满口清香清浅水,黄昏月色奈新吟。

鸾舆盲女共春游,郁郁胸襟好慰愁,
放眼众生皆轻贱,爱看森也美风流。

楚台遥望更登攀,半夜玉床愁梦间,
花绽一茎梅树下,凌波仙子腰间。

尽管一休泛舟情海,游戏人间,但他始终相信,人只不过是一副披着血肉外表的骸骨。他在1457年写了一篇作品《骸骨》,借一个关于骸骨的梦,来说明他的信 念,认为这个世界的一切壮丽辉煌,只不过是过眼云烟的幻象而已。他说:“人,只不过是副骸骨,外面披上五颜六色的皮,男女相爱,只见色相罢了。一旦停止了 呼吸,肉体腐败,颜色尽失,爱欲也就消失了。你再也分辨得出谁生前有钱有势、谁又是贫穷低贱了,记住,你臭皮囊下乃是一副骸骨,正在等着要现出原形。”

在一休看来,这世上的一切,都是暂时的、表面的,甚至连宗教外在的形式和衣饰,也只是披在骸骨上的表皮罢了。有一件轶事颇能说明他这观点:有一次一个富贵之家,请一休去做法事,一休就穿着一身破旧法衣前去,那人认为他太不得体了,将他遣走。一休过了不就又再回来,这次他在旧法衣上披上一件华丽的袈裟,于是大受欢迎。一休立即把袈裟脱下,说:“让这袈裟给你们做法事好了。”说完头也不回,仍穿着破旧法衣,昂然离去。

一休八十一岁那年,很勉强才接受了后土御门天皇的敕请,出任了大德寺住持,但他只在大德寺住了一天,就再也不回去了。由于应仁之乱,大德寺再度被焚毁,一休为之筹划重建,到文明十三年,才落成了方丈和法堂,一休于那年十一月在酬恩庵去世,享年八十八岁。

一休现在不但是我小时候的英雄,还是我现在的英雄。

Thursday, November 8, 2007

转载:一道受用终身的测试题

这是一家公司要招收新的职员其中一个测试的问题...... 你开着一辆车。 在一个暴风雨的晚上。 你经过一个车站。 有三个人正在等公共汽车。 一个是快要死的老人,好可怜的。 一个是医生,他曾救过你的命,是大恩人,你做梦都想报答他。 还有一个女人/男人,她/他是那种你做梦都想娶/嫁的人,也许错过就没有了。 但你的车只能坐一个人,你会如何选择那?请解释一下你的理由。

答案在comment里,看之前仔细考虑一下

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Minneapolis

Minneapolis is the

Most Affordable Places to Live Well


Citing Forbes

http://www.forbes.com/2007/11/05/homes-property-affordable-forbeslife-cx_mw_1106realestate_slide_8.html?thisSpeed=15000

Monday, November 5, 2007

Gay Bomb

I heard this from someone else, but here is what said in WIKI:

"Gay bomb" is an informal name for a theoretical non-lethal chemical weapon, which a United States Air Force research laboratory speculated about producing.

In 1994 the Wright Laboratory in Ohio produced a three-page proposal of a variety of possible nonlethal chemical weapons, which was later obtained—complete with marginal jottings and typos—by the Sunshine Project through a Freedom of Information Act request.

In one sentence of the document it was suggested that a strong aphrodisiac could be dropped on enemy troops, ideally one which would also cause "homosexual behavior". The aphrodisiac weapon was described as "distasteful but completely non-lethal". In its "New Discoveries Needed" section, the document implicitly acknowledges that no such chemicals are actually known. The document also included many other off-beat ideas, such as spraying enemy troops with bee pheromones and then hiding numerous beehives in the combat area, and a chemical weapon that would give the enemy bad breath.

Wright Laboratory won the 2007 Ig Nobel Peace Prize for "instigating research & development on a chemical weapon—the so-called 'gay bomb'—that will make enemy soldiers become sexually irresistible to each other."[1] However, Air Force personnel contacted were not willing to attend the award ceremony at Harvard University's Sanders Theater to accept the award in person.


End of quote......Wait, I am still laughing.....

我的共产主义观

我认为共产主义不但是可以实现的,还是必然实现的。中国人对共产主义实现的意志不应该动摇,对共产主义实现的过程应该改观。

在中国实行改革开放以后,有很多人认为共产主义在中国已经是名存实亡了。市场经济的实施让中国人的物质生活在短短20年里丰富起来了,但贫富差距却越来越大。

老百姓的意识观念也存在潜伏的危机。首先,文化大革命已经在某种程度上抹杀了中国人的传统信仰,改革开放又在很大程度上消弱了中国人对共产主义的信仰。在加上贫富差距的增大,大多数人觉得自己越来越被社会排挤压榨,马克思预言的阶级矛盾在中国成为社会主义国家50年后正在愈演愈烈。以共产主义信仰为基础的国家政府也正处在一种尴尬的局面。难怪现在政府在政策上显得犹豫不决。现在的政府和国家的关系就像青春期父母和子女之间的关系。一方面想要加快经济改革,一方面又不停的加强思想教育,控制社会舆论。

我觉得政府不必为难。就像邓小平当年提出“实事求是”的口号一样,现在的人民需要有一种评价社会进步,政府成功地标准。当年的标准就是:只要是能让老百姓过上好日子的就是好的。现在这个标准不再合时,因为大家的日子都在变好,凭什么有些人过得好那么多?

现在的标准应该是怎样让老百姓都过上好日子的同时,消除贫富差距。等等,讲了半天,又讲回共产主义来了。仔细学了以下马克思的共产党宣言,其实他老人家说的共产主义就是这两点。但是我对共产主义的实现却有不同的看法。共产党宣言里说共产主义的实现是要经过阶级斗争的,然后工人阶级成为资本主义的“掘墓人”,阶级的概念消失了,共产主义就实现了。这似乎在指出要先消除贫富差距,大多数的老百姓才能过上好日子。马克思举出了历史上的例子,指出生产力向前大的进步都是在社会形态发生转变后发生的。中学政治课里就说,商鞅变法就是中国从奴隶社会向封建转型的标志,随后,中国社会的生产力大大进步,成为世界强国。近代的工业革命也是一样,由封建社会向资本主义社会转型,生产力再大大提高。

生产力的提高也将是消除贫富差距的最好标准。当然是人均生产力。一个简单的经济模型。两种人:资本拥有者和无产者。生产过程需要人力和资本。产品被消费或转化成为下一期的资本。任何无产者可以省下消费品来购买资本。在有很多无产者而资本有限的时候,物以希为贵,资本的回收率比人力的回收率高的多。人力的供应多于对人力的需求,人力的工资就会被压缩到最低限度,人们用来消费还不够,何况有任何剩余。贫富差距就会扩大。但如果人均生产力提高到对人力的需求高于人力的供应,,公司间对人才的竞争使人们的工资大幅提高,大家都能购买资本,贫富差距就会减小。

所以我认为的共产主义不是人人都是无产者,而是人人都是资本拥有者。

当然资源是有限的,生产力不可能无限增长,甚至教育在短期内都对生产力增长没有帮助。只有两个办法,人口控制,和资源科技发展。至于一个国家是否民主不过是secondary.

So in the picture, Is Marx smiling at me or with me?

Motivation Quote

The Biggest Mistake in Life is to Think That You Work for Someone Else!!

-Bob Nelson

Power of Speculation

After last weeks raise in gas price by 10% in China, PetroChina is gaining really big in the stock market. It overtook ExxonMobile to become the world's number 1 Company in terms of value.

IT IS valued at 1 trillion us dollars!! More than double of the value of ExxonMobile.

However, in terms of profit, it's not in even top 50 in the world. Scary!! The government is really controlling the gas markup in China, and the bubble is building up, more cool-down is needed.

Missed Out

Working too hard, missed out the showdown between Patriots and Colts. Did follow it on the ESPN website though, seems to be a very entertaining game. Tom Brady threw two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to win it all, 24-20.

From the first quarter, it seems that the ref. wanted the game to go to Indy, so many passing interference calls, one of them gave Pats 40 yard penalty!! But I think it was Pats' day after all, how could Manning make such a mistake giving up the ball with 4 points down 3 minutes to go!!

Anyways, can't wait to see them playing again in the playoffs.

PS. Patriots are accusing Colts cheating with piped loud noise to distract the opponents.

Thursday, November 1, 2007

Each Kid Costs You at least 6 Years

Just out of curiosity, decided to figure out a date when I can comfortably retire (not that I want to do so at this date, just when I am totally financially independent).

After I get married, hopefully the average annual income for the household is around $150,000 in current dollar. 33% goes to taxes, after tax income is $100,000. $1,500 for rent or house per month or $18,000 per year, $12,000 per year for two children's education, $10,000 per year for parents, that leaves $60,000. Let's split in the middle, half for current expense and half for retirement fund, that leaves $30,000 for saving.

Now suppose after retirement, the annual living expense is $40,000, let's take out risk in investing, taxes and inflation, and assume the real interest is 3% annually, then to live without fear of bankruptcy forever, we will need $1,373,333 [(x-40000)*1.03=x]. Saving $30,000 a year at compound interest rate 3% takes 26 years to get to $,1379,327. Suppose the family starts earning at my age = 28, that means I will have to wait until I am 54......

Let's have no kids, annual saving is $42,000, then the retirement date is move to the 20th year, or when I am 48. So it's save to say each kid will cost at least 3 years of two parents' lives, or 6 years of a parent's life!!! And this is assuming high income. Imagine when you are poor... Kids are expensive!!

Bad Day for the World Economy

Fed finally cut the rate, upon that it decided to inject billions of dollars into the Economy. The subprime credit crisis is not over, people are scared. Dow Jones dropped by 360 points today, the biggest this year.

Meanwhile, oil price continues to skyrocket, China decided to raise gas price by 10%.

Scouring through the web, haven't seen one good news today.