Don't Save Next Year

It's been widely rumored that the Fed is cut the rate by quarter point today, bad news for us savers. Now it's likely the CD rate is going to be below 4% APY.

Thinking about exchange rate, Chinese Yuan to US Dollar dropped from 7.8 yuan/dollar in January to 7.5 yuan/dollar in October. Assuming the trend is linear, this means, by the end of the year, the exchange rate is 7.44 yuan/dollar. This means if I put $100 in to Chinese yuan, by the end of the year, I am going to have $104.84, almost 5% .

Looking forward to next year, make a big assumption that yuan to dollar drops at the same rate, so it drops from 7.44 yuan/dollar at the beginning of the year to 7.08 yuan/dollar at the end of the year, $100 in the beginning is going to be $105.09 in the end, more than 5%. In the current CD rate situation, it's definitely more worth-a-while to invest in a mutual fund which yields 10% or even foreign exchange. BTW, invest in Euro is almost 10% this year.

Power of New Matlab

I just installed the New R2007 Matlab on my computer. I test ran the 1000x1000 Newton's Basin program. Before the program took 30 min to run, now it took 315 seconds. Pretty Cool.

Getting ready for the Show-Down

Now Baseball season is over, it's time to shift focus to Football. After massacring the Miami Dolphins, the New England Patriots pulled another one on the Redskins 52-7, and improved their record to 8-0.

Currently, there is only one team can match them, the defending champion the Indy Colts. Under Peyton Manning, the Colts also remain undefeated at 7-0. But guess who Patriots meet next time, yeah, that's right, it's the Colts. That's a game I definitely would not miss. Only one team will remain standing after next Sunday to have a chance to complete a perfect season.

Here are some statistics:
Pats vs. Colts
Ave. Score for: 41.4 vs. 32
Ave. Score against: 15.9 vs. 14.6
Ave. Yards for: 439.5 vs. 398.9
Ave. Yards against: 268.5 vs. 272.9
Ave. Pass for: 303.8 vs. 258.6
Ave. Pass against: 181.5 vs. 165.4
Ave. Rush for: 135.8 vs. 140.3
Ave. Rush against: 87 vs. 107.4

In comparison, Pats have stronger passing game, and Colts are stronger in rushing. It's also a battle between Manning and Brady. Interesting Game.

What happend to unbiased media

This morning, CNN reported that Israeli prime minister has cancer. And the morning anchor Heidi Collins has to say "an important world leader". When did Israeli prime minister became a world leader? Can Israel change world politics more than Iraq or Iran? I bet CNN wouldn't call Iranian president World Leader!!

Oh, so only friends or allies of the United States are World Leaders, all other countries don't matter in the world. What kind of logic is that. How arrogant and inconsiderate. U.S. news media sucks!

I especially dislike Heidi Collins, Tony Harris (this pair is terrible in interviews and chatty like grandmas) and Lou Dobbs(BIGOT!!)

SWEEEEEEEP!!!

Boston Red Sox swept the Colorado Rockies in the World Series!!!!!!!!!!
13-1;2-1;10:5;4-3;

We are the Champions, we are the Champions, we are the Champions!!!!

"金婚”

实在没时间看50集电视连续剧，抽时间和YUNYUN看了看简介。

我看完以后最大的问题是，这不就是50年来中国城市老百姓的生活写照吗?如果我们已经生活在其中了，干吗还要花50集的时间把生活中所有的絮絮叨叨的琐碎事全都搬到电视屏幕上？这不是浪费时间吗？

突然想起我姥姥姥爷，我妈爸，是啊转眼间他们都老了，离休的离休，事业到头的到头，每天没事的时候除了对子孙亟盼，已经没了精神寄托。自然而然的会去回忆过去，回想自己当年的点点滴滴，辛酸苦辣。看了"金婚”这种戏，马上在精神深处引起共鸣，“原来我们这一代人是这样过来的呀”。所以这种戏越琐碎，就越真实，就越能引起共鸣。难怪每次听我妈说，每次到点不误。每天那个小时，都能把自己带回到自己年轻那个年代，想想自己这些年是怎么过来的，看完以后还可以和自己的亲人聊聊自己家的现在过去，何乐而不为？

至于对于我们这一代，就当家庭历史看看吧，不必太认真。人类历史不断在重复，除了家庭历史以外。时代的不同，生活在其中的人所经历的要面对的也就不同。“金婚”中对爱情婚姻的释义不值得借鉴。我们这一代还没有到回顾自己一生的时候，和上一代走点不同的路吧， 40年后在让后人去说我们的故事。

女人的问题？

忙里偷闲时看到网上有人这样灌水，题目是“男人打死也不敢娶的女人”， 其中有以下几项：

1。李嘉欣 - 太漂亮
2。Condi Rice - 太有权
3。Jodie Foster - 太聪明
4。木子美 - 太开放
5。Paris Hilton - 太有钱
6。章子怡 - 太有野心
7。李宇春 -太中性
8。许纯美 -太神经
9。芙蓉姐姐 -太自恋

后面还跟一帮帖子，“嗯,的确不能娶。” “一个都不能要。” “有道理，确实是这样的。” “千万别娶进门呀。”

http://club.women.sohu.com/r-womenclu-306438-0-683-0.html

看完以后只想笑，这肯定是个男人写的，而且他的老婆必定是，又丑，又没主意， 又蠢， 又保守，又穷，又不求上进。后面还要跟一群白痴，也不想想你愿意娶，别人还不愿意嫁呢。

没想到在今时今日，这样的宣扬“女子无才便是德”的帖子还能引起这么大的共鸣，这分明是中国男人的悲哀！！这些人要到什么时候才能理解娶女人不是逛商店买东西。

试想想用这些形容词在男人身上，

刘德华会因为太帅，而没人嫁？ 有女人为了见一面连老爸死活都不顾，何况嫁？

某某县长，鸡毛大点官，会因为有权，而没人嫁？现在有多少县长市长们的花边新闻？

杨振宁会因为太聪明，而没人嫁？老爷子80岁还要找个20岁的小姑娘。

Hugh Hefner(花花公子杂志)会因为太开放，而没人嫁？70岁的花花公子还有3个女友。

香港“地产神童”罗兆辉会因为太有钱， 而没人嫁？袁咏仪都曾被他包养。

周润发会因为有野心进军好莱坞，而没人嫁？说了你都不信。

现今因为中性而千人迷，万人迷的男艺人就数不胜数了。

同样的形容词，为什么放在男人身上，和放在女人身上有这么不同？是女人的问题？还是男人和社会的意识问题？

话说回来，对于最后两个女人的例子，我不得不认同，不但是女人，就是男人这样的也没人嫁！白痴媒体的杰作！！

Hurwicz Reception

With a full heart of joy, we went to join the Hurwicz Nobel Prize reception. Alot of people, famous ones too, were there. Among them, the fellow Nobel winner, Eric Maskin.

I got a chance to talk to Hurwicz for couple minutes. He still remember me as his TA, he asked about my own work. And he told me he would advise his students to have three dissertation topics, one maybe too easy, one maybe too hard, and one of them would be just right.

八卦

昨天在网上看八卦的时候, 看到一个问题，放上来讨论讨论：

如果你的男/女朋友(或劳工/老婆）突然发现对方曾经和自己认识的人（同学，同事，室友，好友，亲戚）有过一段过去，并且还有过亲密接触，你会怎么样？(自己的另一半刻意隐瞒了此人跟你认识的事实. 当然，他/她是在那段感情结束之后才和你好的。)
选项1: 完全不介意.
选项2：觉得怪怪的，不过并不介意。
选项3：感觉怪怪的，因此心里不舒服，但是不告诉另一半。
选项4：心里不舒服，需要跟自己另一半沟通。
选项5：无法接受，要分手。

网上的故事是一个女生和一个男生以前是好朋友，经常聊天. 这男孩还是她的感情顾问。后来女孩决定和这个男生在一起。她知道这男生以前和其他女生在一起过，也有过“亲密接触”。她都可以接受。但相处以后一次偶然的机会，聊天发现这男生跟前女友有过亲密关系, 然后男生主动告诉了她那个ex是这个女生的大学同班同学。这女生觉得特别不能接受，主要因为这男生竟然以前都刻意隐瞒没提起（因为女生总跟男生讲以前大学生活的事情，还有大学同学现在的状况。这个男生其实认识他们聊到的好些人，但从来都没有讲过什么）。
当然她也知道男生一般不愿提起自己的感情生活。但是好像就是感觉被欺骗了，所以要跟男生分手。

我觉得这个男生挺可怜的，有点怎么做都不对的味道。不告诉女生估计是因为怕说了就没戏了。于是好了以后，抓紧时机找个机会讲了，自己良心上好过。所以说他欺骗还是有点过了。不过站到女生的角度想，真的是觉得挺不舒服的。要是当什么事情都没有，估计心里很憋气，毕竟它是刻意的隐瞒。搞不好还会觉得自己是别人第一眼没挑上，怎么怎么的呢。。。哎

新的九个人

党的十七届一中全会22日上午选举胡锦涛为中央委员会总书记，选举胡锦涛、吴邦国、温家宝、贾庆林、李长春、习近平、李克强、贺国强、周永康为中央政治局常委。

习近平、李克强、贺国强、周永康是新人，而且习近平可能会是在2012年接替胡锦涛的人。

Bitter Sweet Moment

I went to Miguel's to watch the last Grand Prix of the F1 series this year. Upon entering the Brazilian Grand Prix, three drivers have the possibility of winning the world championship, which got us all too excited. This hasn't happened to some 50 odd years. From McLaren, last year's champion Spaniard Alonso, the amazing Rookie of the year, Brit Hamilton, and from Ferrari, the "Ice Man" Finn Kimi Raikkonen (Pictured).

Hamilton was doing amazing, and he had a chance to clench the championship couple weeks ago in the Shanghai Grand Prix. He would have been the first rookie in the F1 history to win the championship. Instead, he decided to show his rookie mistakes in perhaps the most important race of his life so far, and pit his car onto the gravel. The tire was too smooth, and his car got stuck, and he was out.

His teammate and bitter rival, Alonso and the "Long Shot" Raikkonen caught up to him in this race. Although still leading in the championship, Hamilton's point lead dwindled to only 3 points after the Shanghai Grand Prix, which sets up the final show down in Brazil.

Hamilton made a crucial mistake again early on in the race. In an attempt to pass Alonso, which he need not to do to win the championship because the point lead he has, he bumps his race car, which swiched his gear box to neutral. He suddenly fell from 4th place to 8th, then to 18th. Although he recovered to 7th place in the end, but a significant time gap was opened up between his and the front runners. Also Hamilton pitted 3 times, comparing to the two times the other top drivers did, so he was out of luck.

Alonso was alone in the front to chase the two Ferraris. Massa, the other Ferrari driver gave up the first place to Raikkonen, giving his the 1 point advantage to win the championship. Hamilton tied Alonso in points, but won the second place due to more podium appearances. Exciting race to say the least.

Kimi Raikkonen always had bad lucks in race. He is an amazing driver, and he was leading in couple previous year's championship race, then his car would break down because of mechanical reasons, or got crushed into by others. Alot of heartbreaks in the past years. This year seemed in the beginning was not his year again. He was trialling by alot of points behind the two McLaren racers. Then the McLaren infighting began, Raikkonen slowly but surely caught up. But he is still not the favor entering the last race. Then his luck finally turned. Rival's mistakes finally gave him the first championship win in 2007. A bittersweet moment!!

My Weekend Excitement

My favorite baseball team, the Boston Red Sox is going to the World Series!!!!!

Red Soxes were trailing the Indians 1-3 in the American League finals, and the 5th game was in Cleveland. Even Curt Schilling couldn't stop the Indians, everything seems to be done for the Red Soxes. Then it comes Beckett saving the Red Sox from elimination in game 5th game.

The last two games these weekends in Boston I watched. Ortiz and Ramirez weren't doing much. Then it comes from no where this rookie names Dustin Peoria, who just keeps on hammering home-runs and RBIs. It's like the whole team was struck by lighting, they scored 30-5 in the last 3 games, 23 in the last two. And Cleveland just kept on making stupid mistakes, like two outfielders bumped into each other, or the third base coach stopped a base runner because he thought a perfect baseline ball was out of bound. I'd like to think that me watching the game really helpped. But any ways, the SOXes is hosting the Rockies in the World Series, and they are going to repeat their title from 2004.

我对爱的定义

“我爱你”三个字不好说出口，就算说出来了，他真正的含义也不好理解。

冷眼看看这个世界，有多少男人对女人说“我爱你”，其实是在说“我想和你做爱”； 有多少女人对男人说“我爱你”，其实是在说“我要你对我负责”。

记得看过一个漫画，一对一夜情的男女，一夜情之前，男人跪在女人裙下，手放在胸口深情说：“我多么多么爱你。” 一夜情之后，女人跪在男人裤边，拉着男人的裤脚哭着说：“我多么多么爱你。”

所以“我爱你”不能轻易说出口。再上升一个档次，“我爱你”等于“我热爱你”。青年男女的热爱往往让人羡慕，让人向往。在一起的时候，做多无聊的事都觉得开心，不在一起的时候，做自己从前多感兴趣的事都觉的心不在焉。往往热爱昙花一现，热情随风而逝之后，对方的缺点错误不断的被现实生活的残酷的放大， 爱也就不见了。讽刺的是，只有那种一对热恋中人被生生分开的爱情故事才是美的，凄美的。童话故事和琼瑶小说里， 一对热恋中人在经历了千辛万苦后才到一起，故事也就结束了，没有余味。

张宇的一首歌我喜欢：“当时我们都太小，只是一天到晚围着爱绕，以为只要几个面包，我们也可以相拥而笑。当时我们都怕老，永远不肯承认对方最好，以为可以负气而逃，但哪里知道爱就不见了。”

所以“我爱你”不要轻易说出口。“我爱你”说出口的时候应该已经等于“我爱我自己”。两个人已经在精神上成为一体。 这不是说喜欢对方的一切，而是完全的接受对方的一切。人都对自己有不满的地方，但正常人不会因为自己的短处而不爱自己。一对真正的爱人能完全的接受对方成为“自己”的一部分。当他们能在别人都不觉得好笑的时候，真心的被对方的笑话说笑时候，当他们能在别人都无动于衷的时候，为对方的微微一皱的眉头就感觉担忧的时候，他们才能于心无愧的说：“我爱你。” 一切都在细节中。

我姥姥天天责怪我姥爷，这里又没做对，那里又没做好，老两口天天在家拌嘴。但一旦对方有一点点的小病，另一方马上紧张忧郁到了极点。 开始我觉得好笑，渐渐的，我发现他们嘴上不吃亏归不吃亏，行为上对对方是无微不至，行动上是形影不离，早已黄老的眼睛里只有对方。有这么一天，我突然看着他们想着他们就哭了，不知是太感动了还是太羡慕了。

婚姻应该建立在这种爱上，因为这种爱是建立在交流，信任和尊重上的，这种爱是自私的排外的，这种爱是不需要刻意维持的，这种爱才是纯洁的，扣人心扉的。 我追求的爱！

What is Bush Thinking?!?

Today, Dalai Lama is in the US to get the Congressional Medal of Gold, the highest civilian honor there is in the US. The W. will attend the ceremony in Washington D.C., becoming the first U.S. president to appear in public with Dalai Lama.

What is he Thinking!!!!! He doesn't have enough trouble with his foreign policy? He has to piss China off, just at the crucial moment where China can help offset US trade deficit, can help calm Burma, can help negotiate peace with North Korea. What is he Thinking?!?

Here is what BBC reported on China's reaction"

Beijing described it as a "gross interference in China's internal affairs".

"China is strongly resentful of this and resolutely opposes it," foreign ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao was quoted by the official Xinhua news agency as saying on Wednesday.

Even granted Dalai Lama is a great enlightened guy, this is a major bad timing for the US foreign policy. What's wrong with this country and all the bad decisions.

Of course, the Congress is the main culprit. To have the medal, it requires 2/3 of all votes. This is the second debacle after the Turkey Armenian resolution!!

Colbert for President

Stephen COLBERT from the COLBERT report is running for President of the United States!!!

He is running only in his native states of South Carolina. He even had his book tour for his best seller "I am American, So Can You".

Finally, one candidate in the race knows how ridiculous he/she is. COOL.

对做爱的调查

美国的人口普查在近年开始对人口性行为进行调查，最有争论的结果是在15-64岁的人口中，如果除去同性恋者，男人报告的性伴侣人数平均7人，女人报告的 性伴侣人数平均只有4人。 但那另外3个女人从哪里来？从纯数学的角度来说，如果每个人都说真话的话，平均每个15-64岁的男人要和平均一个外国女人，一个15岁以下的幼女，和一 个64岁以上的熟女做爱。还有一个可能的解释：妓女。

这样看来，我宁可相信有人在说假话。

A Surprise Connection

I am a big fan of the Coen Brother's films, like The Big Lebowski, Fargo, O Brother Where Art Thou, The Man Who Wasn't There, etc.

This weekend I watch their movie Intolerable Cruelty with YUNYUN, so I read a little bit about the Coen Brothers. Surprise, they were born in St. Louis Park, Minnesota. Even more surprising, their father is Edward Coen, a retired economics professor from UofM, in other words, from my department!! We even have a fellowship in his honor.

Here is a link:
http://www.econ.umn.edu/donation.html

Picture with a NOBEL WINNER

LEO HURWICZ has won Economic Nobel Prize in 2007 at the age of 90!!! (Shared with Myerson and Maskin, they were awarded for the laying the foundations of mechanism design.). Officially, he becomes the the oldest person to receive a Nobel for any category.


And I just realized that I have TA'd for a Nobel Laureate!! Pretty Cool.

This picture was taken a few year ago during a reception, around the time Ed. Prescott got his Nobel. Christos and I went to ask him to take a picture with us, as humble as he is, he asked us:"why do you want to take a picture with an old man?" We said:"Because you are Leo Hurwicz!!" And he smiled and said:"I will only do it if you would also send a copy of the picture to me."

Simple Fallacy

"Democracy is the best!!" "Out god given mission is to spread the JOY of DEMOCRACY around the world!!" Day in and day out, the US media is carrying the same underlining message to the American people.

"How lucky we are, while people are starving to death in Communist North Korea, Americans can pursue their American Dreams under Democracy."

"How lucky we are, while people are being send to prison for speaking against the government in China, Americans can enjoy the Freedom of Speech under Democracy."

"How lucky we are, while people are stoned to death for no apparent reason in Saudi Arabia, Americans can enjoy Human Rights protection under Democracy."

"How lucky we are, all the people from the rest of the world want to come to this country, it's because we have a wonderful system of Democracy."

It is true, look around the world, all the most development countries are democracies, all the backward not developing countries are not democracies. Then it must be true democracy is the magic potion to cure poverty, protect people's basic human right, and make sure all people enjoy equal opportunities. Then to help those backward countries, we must teach those people to have democracy!!

The logic makes perfect sense, or does it? There is just a simple problem: correlation doesn't mean causation.

A simple textbook example: in summer times, people observe that a lot more ice cream trucks are on the street, and a lot of young children drown. Does it mean to prevent children from drowning, we should ban all the ice cream trucks in the summer? No, because the increasing in ice cream trucks and drowning are both caused by a third factor, hot temperature. Unfortunately for the democracy-for-all people "People enjoy life better" = "less children drowning", "Democracy"="less ice cream trucks", the real cause = "property owning middle class".

How democracy arise in the first place gives us a hint. Modern democracy arose in Europe. William and Mary signed the English Bill of Rights in 1689 establishing one of the earliest constitutional monarchy. French Revolution in 1789-1799 brought swift abolishment of absolute monarchy in Europe. Then it comes free election and democracy. But all these were preceded by the discovery of the new world in 1492, and large influx of gold and silver into European countries. Suddenly, besides the royal family and the lords common people start owning property, a middle class start to emerge. Then and only then, enough amount of people start to realize the importance of property rights, constitutions are written to protect these rights, then it comes the power of the people - Democracy.

Putin's Russia

What's democracy? The dictionary definition is government of the people. In more practical terms, peaceful and fair competition for power. On March 2nd, 2008, the world will embrace the fact that the Russian Confederation is no longer a democracy. This is the expiration date of Vladimir Putin's presidency.

As of now, the Russian constitution has a term limit of the presidency. Much like in the US, the term is 4 years and a person can only be elected two terms consecutively. But there is a crucial difference, in Russia, the term limit is only on the current run, which means Putin cannot seek reelection in 2008, but he can do so in 2012.

And he is already preparing for just that. First he dissolved the government, and appointed an relatively unknown character named Viktor Zubkov as prime minister. Well poised, and backed by Putin, this guy is most likely to win the 2008 election for president. But this guy doesn't have much political capital, and is likely to be dependent on the support from Putin. So the president will most likely be Putin's puppet. Secondly, Putin puts out words that he is not objecting to the idea that he runs for the prime minister.

Oh, come on, everyone can see what he is doing, switching the power structure of the government, making the presidency a ceremonial title, he can retain power indefinitely. If Putin stays on, he probably will change the constitution, making all the legal paperwork, paving his way to autocracy.

Then it comes the question, is it bad? See the next Post.

French Fries

According to Wikipedia:

French Fries were probably originated in Belgium. The name comes from the cooking term "to French" which means to cut food into strips, hence they are "Frenched and fried".

Here they gave a list of common misconceptions:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_misconceptions

为什么易先生会哭

色戒中感人的一段是王佳芝给易先生在日本妓院唱的一首歌：

天涯呀海角，觅呀觅知音。小妹妹唱歌郎奏琴，郎呀咱们俩是一条心。爱呀爱呀郎呀，咱们俩是一条心。家山呀北望，泪呀泪沾襟。小妹妹想郎直到今，郎呀患难之交恩爱深。爱呀爱呀郎呀，患难之交恩爱深。人生呀谁不异呀异表春，小妹妹似线郎似针，郎呀穿在一起不离分。爱呀爱呀郎呀，穿在一起不离分。

这首歌叫“天涯歌女”， 作词: 田汉； 作曲: 贺绿汀； 原唱：周璇。 很难想象这歌词的作者竟和中国国歌的作词人是同一人。

这首歌出至1937年的电影“马路天使”，是“金嗓子”周璇唯一满意的作品，也是演林则徐的赵丹的成名作。

在色戒里易先生听完后哭了，为什么？周六曾和ＪＩＡＪＩＡ，ＺＨＵＯＺＨＵＯ　谈起这个问题。ＺＨＵＯＺＨＵＯ　认为是老易对老婆的愧疚让他哭了，听完我不知是该笑还是该哭，当然是在ＪＩＡＪＩＡ面前说的，这就好理解多了。　ＪＩＡＪＩＡ　认为是老易被王佳芝感动了，YUNYUN认为是老易本想在那杀王佳芝，但感动后就放手了。这可以讨论。

如果他动了真情，在他从珠宝店逃了一命后，应该是感到被欺骗的同时感到这女人对自己是动了感情的。要是我是他，不管怎么恨这女人欺骗自己感情，也要见面问个所以然。虽然这女人的命运是不可改变的，如果老易对王动了真感情，他不至于在王被捕后连面都不见就把人杀了。当他的助手把王的戒指还给易，易马上撇清关系“那不是我的”。当时我的脊梁骨都凉了。

这个人心里只有自己。　他对谁都不相信，对谁都防一手，不停的在试探周围的人。　而且他非常自高，认为自己比旁人，特别是身边的人聪明的多。他极度残酷，对杀人不屑一顾，对亲人冷淡无情，对于手下铁掌控制。但这样的人是极度孤独的，丝毫没有随心所欲的余地，老是觉得别人会在背后捅他一刀。为了维护他伪君子的外壳，又无法把他心里黑暗的一面曝露人前。这种外表和内心的矛盾让他痛苦不堪，让他更加麻木不仁，更加凶残。只有在隐秘的角落里，和王佳芝偷情的时候，这种残暴的本性才得以宣泄出来。王佳芝是他手中的玩物，他也就无所谓要隐瞒自己的黑暗的一面。

我认为他之所以在听完小曲后流泪，是为自己哭的。他突然意识到自己的处境多么悲凉：　“在一个日本妓院，和自己视为玩物的情妇在一起，听她唱小调的时候，自己才能放松一点点，活一点点。除此以外，不管自己在这世上有多成功，已没有自己可以放心可以被欣赏的地方了，多可怜。”　于是哭了。　他对王与其说是动了情，不如说是上了瘾。他生怕她走，又生怕被人发现，于是一个戒指即能拴住这女人的心，又堵了她的嘴，何乐而不为？可怜王佳芝被一只戒指打动，为了见易最后一面，连毒药都不舍得吞。

王佳芝就像易的鸦片，一旦露光，易就会毫不留情的将其销毁，以塞众口。但当他回到家里，坐在王佳芝床上，回想自己这段风流事时，也就不可避免的意识到，自己唯一能感觉活一点点的机会都没有了，自己从此以后就如同行尸走肉了，不免哀由心生。杀了王佳芝，也就泯灭了他人性最后一点希望。不得不赞叹梁朝伟的演技。

其实李安的色戒已经不同于张爱玲的色戒。张爱玲的色戒用无情的笔锋，把一个弱女子折磨得投入了自己敌人的怀抱而无法自拔。读者在盖棺定论的时候反而会叹息世事衰败，反而会可怜女主人公的命运。所以在原著里只隐约提到易和王有两次“邂逅”，　而更主要的勾画女主人公的情感变化。由此推断虽然张爱玲的小说是无情的，但张爱玲写小说时对王佳芝是有情的。

但李安的色戒为了暴露易的人性，已经彻头彻尾的无情了。他只所以要把两场床戏扩张到三场，用半个多小时（全剧１５８分钟，国内１２６分钟），写凶杀和赤裸裸的性爱，就是要证明人性的裸露，其实比身体的裸露更加触目惊心。电影已经从对历史的贬斥延伸到对人性的探索。

色戒中的一点发现

周五和YUNYUN一起去看了色戒，对里面的一句台词觉得有一点发现。

当邝裕民（王力宏）召集他的学生剧组，决定要刺杀易先生的时候，提出的原因是易和汪精卫一起从重庆逃到香港，准备投降日本人的。所以汪和易是最大的汉奸，人人得以诛之。当他的同学为自己的生命安全而有所顾忌的时候，邝裕民来了一句激励人心的话： 引刀成一快，不负少年头。

当时看的时候觉得很合逻辑，时候一琢磨，不对呀，“ 引刀成一快，不负少年头。” 可是汪精卫的名句。 1910年，汪精卫和黄复生刺杀摄政王载沣失败入狱，曾写“慷慨篇”以明死志。

街石成痴绝，沧波万里愁； 孤飞终不倦，羞逐海浪浮。
姹紫嫣红色，从知渲染难； 他时好花发，认取血痕斑。
慷慨歌燕市，从容作楚囚； 引刀成一快，不负少年头。
留得心魂在，残躯付劫灰； 青磷光不灭，夜夜照燕台。

哦，搞了老半天，邝裕民还是汪精卫得粉丝。我看了张爱玲的原书，这句话是没有的。 电影里的对话完全是编剧加进去的。可见这句话已经与 “我自横刀向天笑，去留肝胆两昆仑” 有同样影响，但人们已经忘记它是谁写的了。

既然汪精卫是中国近代革命青年的祖师爷，怎么又成了中华民族的大汉奸了呢？

汪精卫的妻子陈璧君在1946年被国民政府审判的时候，坚决不服罪，不承认汪精卫卖国， 说道：“日寇侵略，国土沦丧，人民遭殃，这是蒋介石的责任，还是汪先生的责任？说汪先生卖国？重庆通知下的地区，由不得汪先生去卖。南京统治下的地区，是日本人的占领区，并无寸土是汪先生断送的，相反只有从敌人手中夺回的权利，还有什么国可卖？汪先生创导和平运动，赤手收回沦陷区，如今完璧归还国家，不但无罪而且有功。”

说汪精卫出卖国土是有点说不通，但汪终有出卖国家主权吧：

1942年后，日本在太平洋战场上投入大量兵力，在中国的处境已经很窘迫。汪政府逐渐采取强硬态度，要求日本交还主权，扩大政府力量。1942年9月22日，汪向访问南京的日本特使提出了强化南京政府的建议，汪再建议中要求日本不再继续干涉南京政府的行政和经济。1943年1月9日，南京政府和日本签订了“租界返还和废除治法外权”，将英法和日本租界返还中国。1943年2月2日，汪发出主席令，撤除国旗上“和平，反共，建国”字样的黄色三角巾，使国旗恢复原来模样。1943年10月30日，南京政府和日本重新签订了“华日同盟条约”，大大改善了1940年签订的“华日基本条约”中的主权丧失部分。

汪之所以是汉奸，一是与敌人的妥协和合作，二是政治炒作。 他的行为是值得批判的，但他的动机却可能是值得同情的。汪和蒋介石的矛盾是众所周知的，汪在重庆受排斥是可想而知。但他又不忍心退出政治舞台。于是，宁可背上汉奸的名分，也要作出和蒋对着干的事情。当然也不排除他的确想要为占领区的百姓做点什么。当然，汪精卫的不幸也在于他死得太早。

很难想象如果当年越王勾践在给吴王夫差当人质时就病死了，人们是否会把他也骂成是卖国贼。想象当时越国人听到他们的领导给吴王尝粪便时是怎么想的。但历史毕竟是胜利者的历史，越王毕竟活下来了，毕竟打败了吴王，毕竟称霸了中原，人们因此得知他是忍辱负重。 可汪精卫死了，还死在了日本，人们也就无法知道他的动机。他也就成为了中国近代最大的汉奸。难怪他在日本名古屋死前最后一句话是：“我要回中国。” 可悲，可叹，可恨。

http://www.edubridge.com/erxiantang/library/wangjingwei_linsiyun.htm

The Economics of Being Evil

I was reading Steve Levitt's Freakoconomics last night. In the end of one of the chapters, the author concluded that human being is 87% good. The evidence presented was from an economist turned bagel salesman Feldman. His bagel business uses a honor paying system, basically, he delivers the bagel during a company's break hour, then he leaves his bagels and his collection box in the room, only to collect the money later. Since he kept extensive record, he knows that the recovery rate of money in this system was on average 87%. Since there is no surveillance, people gave the money voluntarily, Levitt concluded on average human is 87% good.

He also mention an interesting concept from a movie. Some guy picked up an invisible cloak, hence excluding him from monitoring of the society, then this character goes on to rape the Queen and kill the King. Here comes the comparison of two different world views. Human is intrinsically bad, we behave only because we observe the consequence of our bad behavior. If we are not monitored by others, then our evil instinct will take over. While the bagel business seem to suggest we are at most time Good, Considerate, even without monitoring.

I think it not a matter of monitoring and the negative consequences that matters, but incentives overall matter. Imagine instead of bagels, Feldman put a basket of gold bars and a collection box. I really doubt that he still has 87% recovery rate. The invisible cloak story threw the incentive scheme off balance, the punishing side went away permanently, which magnified the incentive side.

It got me thinking about another movie - A Simple Plan. A good hearted, educated, and normal couple turned into cold hearted killers in the presence of 4 million dollars. In the end, it's hard to say whether they killed people because they are afraid of being caught, or they are afraid of losing the money. It's definitely not the lack of monitoring system made them evil, but evading the monitoring system may actually accelerated the speed of them becoming evil.

A catchy slogan from the Church of Satan, "EVIL is LIVE spelled backwards". Acting to incentives is human nature. Incentives are neither evil or good, it's the acts against others in achieving these incentives that are evil. Therefore none of us are immune to evil, therefore this is the source of our original sin. And I believe Economics is the study of incentives. Only after we understand how incentives work in the society, can we design incentive systems to be rid of evil.

Now it comes back to my spiritual views. 在中国，孔子， 在西方， 基督， 都在宣扬人的仁和善。 后人却往往把这种善形式化， 成为一种教条。 这种教条的存在，本身就在社会的文化意识形态上加上了一种无形的监控装置。如果一个人按教条做，那他受到尊重，从而获利；如果一个人不按教条做，那他就遭蔑视，从而被惩罚。在获利与惩罚之间，善和仁的教条得以存在下来。但孔子和基督本意的仁和善，却极少有人付诸实施。仁和善应该是在没有任何可获利的机会下，没有任何被惩罚的威胁下，不去做邪恶的事情。 至于什么是邪恶，那就要奉行老夫子的“己所不欲，勿施于人”的真理了。 我认为一个人修身的本质在于，在做任何事情之前，都想想自己在没有获利的机会和惩罚的威胁下会不会做同样的事。 这才是真与假本质的区别呀。做人能做到真，才是做到善的前提； 而做到了真和善，人才是美的。

To Vote or Not to Vote

While getting ready for work this morning, one item in the CNN newscast caught my attention. Washington state is trying to pass a law requiring insurance company to pay 3 times the claim if a claimant can prove to the court that he/she has been wronged by the insurance company.

In the first glance, the legislation made sense, of course the triple claim money poses a sever punishment to the insurance company, and protect the high claim consumers from insurance company's refusal to pay.

In a second thought, the legislation became a frivolous political maneuver to gain more votes. Imagine how many more lawsuits will be brought against the insurance companies, and how insurance rate for every consumer would hike after the legislation.

After more careful thinking, actually the likely result is more subtle. To illustrate my point, here is a example.

Suppose a claim is $1million, the lawyer fee for either side is 20% of the after lawsuit claim, and insurance company would pay the 20% of $1million anyways, but the consumer claimant would only pay after he/she wins in the court. Further assume that cost for a trail lawyer is 10% of the before lawsuit claim.

In this case, the real decision makers whether there would be a lawsuit or not are the insurance company and the trial lawyer for the consumer. Before the legislation, insurance company would refuse to settle if the consumer's chance of winning is less than 80%. Above 80%, the potential of saving money is not high enough to cover the lawyer cost, so the company would settle.

However a trial lawyer would encourage the consumer to go to the court as long as the chance of winning is above 50%. Below 50%, the trial cost is too high for the lawyer to accept (1x50%x20%=10%). So by this logic, a lawsuit would arise if the chance of winning is between 50% and 80%.

After the legislation, the after lawsuit claim became $3million. Insurance company would only refuse to settle if the consumer's chance of winning is less than 26.67%. (The initial claim is $1million, the lawyer fee is 20% of $1million, so the potential loss must be less than $800,000. The after lawsuit claim is $3million, so the chance of winning is 26.67%.)

However, a trial lawyer would encourage the consumer to suit as long as the chance of winning is above 16.67%. (The cost for the lawyer is 10% of $1million or $100,000, and the lawyer fee is 20% of the $3million winning money, so as long as the chance of winning is above 16.67%). So a lawsuit would arise is the chance of winning is between 16.67% and 26.67%.

So this legislation solves the problems for a few people who deserve money, but insurance companies are more likely to settle on a case. Adjusting for such risk, the insurance rate is definitely going to rise. This is a fact regardless of how many lawsuits will be brought against insurance companies.

The number of potential lawsuits depends on how many potential claimants are in between winning chance 50%-80% and how many are in between 17%-27%. If there are less people in the latter category, then less lawyer fee is paid, less dead-weight loss, less court cases. It's better socially speaking, and it's definitely better for the government.

If the reverse is true, more people are petty consumers and would go to court for less than 30% chance of winning, then more money would end up in the lawyer's packets, which can be seen as a dead-weight loss. And the government plan backfires, because the court has to deal with even more cases.

Based on how strong the government support is in Washington state, I believe it would result, at least temporarily in less lawsuits and less social cost. But as for the consumers, they are going to pay a higher cost, just because insurance companies are forced to settle more often. So the question is whether one is willing to pay higher rate for a speedier settlement if something bad happens.

To make the decision harder, one can only observe cases in between 50%-80%, no one knows exactly how many cases are going to spring up in the event of the legislation.

Walking with a piece of art

有一件在国内买的衫国彩绘的T恤，上面有很特别的图案。就是左边这幅。当初买来就是觉得图案挺独特的，所以喜欢。一堆很抽象的小人手拉手的样子。

今天穿着它去了一个group meeting. Group 里面有一个Art professor. Professor 很高兴地指着我的衣服说，“啊，你这个是xxxxxx的作品呢。。。很不错啊。“于是我就很开心地虚心请教了一番。最后跟教授说：“Thanks for letting me know about this.” 教授回说：“Thanks for wearing it.” 于是开始在心里嘀咕，这个画家到底有什么特别之处涅？？？回家来google学习学习，呵呵。

画家的名字是Keith Haring. 了解一番以后，觉得他还真是一个interesting figure. 不过貌似他的作品当中有很多对“性”很直接并且夸张的表现，很radical的样子呢。下面是wiki和他生前建立的foundation 网站上找来得信息。

Keith Haring (May 4, 1958 - February 16, 1990) was a pre-eminent artist and social activist whose work responded to the New York street culture of the 1980s. Haring was greatly inspired by the graffiti art. By expressing universal concepts of birth, death, love, sex and war, using a primacy of line and directness of message, Haring was able to attract a wide audience and assure the accessibility and staying power of his imagery, which has become a universally recognized visual language of the 20th century.

He achieved his first public attention with his chalk drawings in the subways of New York. At this time, "The Radiant Baby" also became his symbol. In 1980, Haring found a highly effective medium that allowed him to communicate with the wider audience he desired, when he noticed the unused advertising panels covered with matte black paper in a subway station. He began to create drawings in white chalk upon these blank paper panels throughout the subway system. Between 1980 and 1985, Haring produced hundreds of these public drawings in rapid rhythmic lines, sometimes creating as many as forty “subway drawings” in one day. This seamless flow of images became familiar to New York commuters, who often would stop to engage the artist when they encountered him at work.

In April 1986, Haring opened the Pop Shop, a retail store in Soho selling T-shirts, toys, posters, buttons and magnets bearing his images. Haring considered the shop to be an extension of his work and painted the entire interior of the store in an abstract black on white mural, creating a striking and unique retail environment. The shop was intended to allow people greater access to his work, which was now readily available on products at a low cost. The shop received criticism from many in the art world, however Haring remained committed to his desire to make his artwork available to as wide an audience as possible.

Haring was diagnosed with AIDS in 1988. In 1989, he established the Keith Haring Foundation, its mandate being to provide funding and imagery to AIDS organizations and children’s programs, and to expand the audience for Haring’s work through exhibitions, publications and the licensing of his images. Haring enlisted his imagery during the last years of his life to speak about his own illness and generate activism and awareness about AIDS.

Nicholas II of Russia vs. Louis XVI of France

Nicholas II of Russia was the last emperor of Russia before the Russian Revolution.

Louis XVI of France was the last king of France before the French revolution.

Nicholas II was inept, weak, resistance to constitutional monarchy, brought tremendous hardship to the people of Russia due to war and economic failure.

Louis XVI was a simpleton, indecisive, conservative, lived in extreme extravagance, brought great public discontent and economic failure.

Nicholas II abdicated after the February Revolution, and was brutally executed by the Bolsheviks after the October Revolution along with his wife and five children.

Louis XVI was arrested during Paris Commune, publicly sentenced to death by guillotine along with his wife the famous Marie Antoinette, his only heir died in prison and thrown into a mass grave.


Nicholas II was canonized as Saint Nicholas The Passion Bearer by the Russian Orthodox Church.

Louis XVI was stripped of all honorific titles, and the public cheered at his execution.

History sees Nicholas II with pity and sympathy, but sees Louis XVI with derision and disdain.

So it comes the question , two absolute monarchy rulers, both political failures, both caused great public discontent, both were overthrown by revolution, both were executed, how come the memories of these two people are almost polar opposite of each other.

The only reason lies with the identities of the executioners. Louis XVI's executioner was the French Republic. This government was short-lived, soon replaced by Napoleon, who brought swift change to French society, and domination of French over the continent Europe. Nicholas II's executioner was the Bolsheviks who established the Soviet Union, which during Stalin's rein had a Great Purge, causing millions of people's death.

It's easy to associate Louis XVI's death with the end of era and the beginning of glory, it's also easy to associate Nicholas II's death with oppression, persecution and fear.

In view of history, people are never objective. Ironically, Nicholas II's executioners gave him his sainthood.

A side note, when the Bolsheviks executed Nicholas II and his family, he, his wife and his son died immediately after they got shot. However, the 4 daughters survived two rounds of shots, and were finally bayoneted to death. It was found later that they had sewed several pounds of diamond in their corsets, which acted as bullet resistance layers, (these must be the most expensive bullet proof vest ever made).

TV Commercials

What are some commercials on TV everyday, here is what I remember:

Products:

Beer: Miller Lite, Bud Lite, Sam Adams; Emphasis on tastes.
Fast Food: Wendy's MacDonald's; Emphasis on price and low fast/good tastes.
Soft-drink: Coke, Pepsi; if reg. emphasis on image - pop culture, coolness, if diet, emphasis on tastes.
Drugs: Nexium, ED drugs, Allergy drugs; emphasis on functionality
Technology: iPhone, iPod, Mac; emphasis on image - coolness.
Cars: so many examples; emphasis on functionality - speed, safety, parallel parking; exception, GM sales, Mercury warranty, in terms of company or brand rather than cars

Services:

Car Insurance: Geico, Esurance, AllState; emphasis on savings.
Online Travel: Priceline; emphasis on savings.
Banking: WaMu; emphasis on less transaction fees.
Car Dealers: emphasis on selection, savings.
Real Estate: emphasis on fast selling.
Cell phone carrier: Verizon; emphasis on network, saving on text message, free to switch...
Credit cards: more rewards...

Odd Balls:

Boeing passenger planes
Dell Main Frame
Financial Services for Small Business
Chemistry/Mining industry
Electricity company - Local monopoly

Interesting Point:
1. For products, price competition is obvious, because consumers can see price tag directly, then advertising is geared more towards image advertising, and product differentiation.

2. For services, consumers do not directly observe prices, and there are lot of product differentiation, then advertising is geared more towards emphasis on savings.

3. Small business owners get their information on TV??

Question:

1. Is it safe to conclude then advertising is promoting social welfare in service industry by driving price down? Then why is service industry so concentrated?

2. Why are chemistry industry, waste management industry, and electricity industry advertising at all? Consumers, even small businesses don't really have a choice, they are local monopolies.

Visual Cue

When asked a question a "normally organized" right-handed person looks (from your viewpoint, looking at them):

Up and to the Left
Indicates: Visually Constructed Images (Vc)
If you asked someone to "Imagine a purple buffalo", this would be the direction their eyes moved in while thinking about the question as they "Visually Constructed" a purple buffalo in their mind.

Up and to the Right
Indicates: Visually Remembered Images (Vr)
If you asked someone to "What color was the first house you lived in?", this would be the direction their eyes moved in while thinking about the question as they "Visually Remembered" the color of their childhood home.

To the Left
Indicates: Auditory Constructed (Ac)
If you asked someone to "Try and create the highest the sound of the pitch possible in your head", this would be the direction their eyes moved in while thinking about the question as they "Auditorily Constructed" this this sound that they have never heard of.

To the Right
Indicates: Auditory Remembered (Ar)
If you asked someone to "Remember what their mother's voice sounds like ", this would be the direction their eyes moved in while thinking about the question as they "Auditorily Remembered " this sound.

Down and to the Left
Indicates: Feeling / Kinesthetic (F)
If you asked someone to "Can you remember the smell of a campfire? ", this would be the direction their eyes moved in while thinking about the question as they used recalled a smell, feeling, or taste.

Down and To the Right
Indicates: Internal Dialog (Ai)
This is the direction of someone eyes as they "talk to themselves".

Chichi 转载 http://www.blifaloo.com/info/lies_eyes.php

关于第三个礼物的小插曲：不是惊喜的惊喜

话说进入9月的最后一周以后，某人就正式得“通知”我，说星期五的晚上不要有其他的事情，他已经安排好我们的活动了。
貌似好像某人有什么“阴谋“。。。虽经本人的各种"逼问拷打"，某人意志坚定，完全不招供。。。甚至用stripclub试图搪塞我。。。
周二晚上回到家，百无聊赖地察看电子邮件, 看到好朋友Jinuos发来得信息，问有没有人是《简爱》迷的，可以一同去市中心的话剧院看最近正在上演简爱的话剧。
也不知道是什么原因，我从来就对简爱这个经典故事迷不起来。。。于是拉过某人说，“看看，Jinous同学居然 fan 简爱。。。真是搞不懂为什么。。。”话还没有说完，已经感觉到有点不对劲。。。某人一反常态，没有接话参与讨论。。。反而脸上表情怪怪的。。。
“哦。。。”有个人终于恍然大悟了，原来星期五的“阴谋”是去看简爱的话剧！！！于是乎，马上加以弥补，试图混淆视听：“呵呵，其实那么多人都喜欢，应该还是很有看头的亚。。。不fan，估计都是因为从来没有从头到尾看完过整个故事。。。正好这次我们一起去看个仔细哈。。。”
呵呵，虽然如此某人依然郁闷不已。。。于是我总结出如下3点原因：

1. Jinous同学的邮件让某人的“阴谋”在毫无防备的情况下曝了光。。。郁闷！
2. 原来jiejie不是一个简爱的fan。对此，某人的判断完全偏离轨道。。。继续郁闷！
3. 更过分的是，Jinous同学在当地报纸上看到了该话剧的打折卷！某人居然花血本买了原价票。。。持久地郁闷中！